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Fed Officials Say Strengthening Economy Doesn't Alter Bond-Purchase Plans

Federal Reserve policy makers said the central bank needs to bring down unemployment by pressing on with record monetary stimulus even as the economy shows signs of gaining strength.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren predicted in a speech yesterday that under current policy, it will take several years to reach full employment and an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Governor Daniel Tarullo told CNBC that “I haven’t seen anything which would warrant a reconsideration” of the Fed’s plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June.

The comments capped a week of remarks by central bankers indicating no change to a policy that has prompted the strongest political backlash in three decades. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in an interview this week that while the U.S. growth outlook has improved after a “strong” holiday shopping season, he wants to see more evidence before considering reducing or slowing the stimulus.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker predicted the program will come under greater scrutiny by policy makers as growth quickens. “While the outlook may not have improved enough yet to warrant adjusting our purchase plans in the near-term, I anticipate earnest re-evaluation as economic developments unfold in the months ahead,” Lacker said yesterday in a speech in Richmond, Virginia. Fed officials plan to meet in Washington on Jan. 25-26.

Politicians such as Representative Ron Paul, a Texas Republican who has advocated abolishing the Fed, have said the central bank’s so-called quantitative easing plan risks spurring inflation.

Industrial Production

Reports yesterday on retail sales and industrial production supported forecasts for quickening growth this year that may boost demand for products ranging from Ford Motor Co. cars to Apple Inc. iPads.

Purchases climbed 0.6 percent, capping the biggest annual increase in more than a decade, Commerce Department figures showed. Output at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8 percent, the most in five months, according to data from the Federal Reserve.

Stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increasing 0.7 percent to 1,293.24 in New York trading. The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased three basis points 3.33 percent, after earlier falling to 3.25 percent, the lowest level since Dec. 20. It was little changed for the week.

Lacker and Rosengren predicted the economy will expand 3.5 percent to 4 percent this year. Growth won’t exceed 4 percent because the housing market’s recovery is likely to be weaker than usual, given the tightening of lending standards and high vacancy rates, Rosengren said.

No Boost to Recovery

“If housing-related growth is not going to boost the recovery this time around, we may need policy -- particularly monetary policy -- to continue playing a stimulative role,” said Rosengren, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year.

Growth of 4 percent would still leave the unemployment rate close to 9 percent at the end of 2011, a level that’s “far above anyone’s estimate of full employment,” Rosengren said.

The jobless rate has held at 9.4 percent or higher since May 2009. Rosengren said it will probably take at least four years to return to full employment.

“Until we get to the point where jobs are being created at a consistent and continuing pace that will bring down unemployment, there is going to be an inherent lack of robustness in the economy,” said Tarullo, 58, who was President Barack Obama’s first appointee to the central bank in January 2009. He said the economy has “decidedly improved.”

Household Debt

Lacker said he expects the economy to improve further because of a firming labor market and reduced household debt.

“Given these stronger fundamentals, it’s not a stretch to project robust growth in consumer spending this year,” Lacker said.

“Even with a relatively robust recovery, it will take several years before we attain full employment and an inflation rate close to a long-run expectation of 2 percent,” Rosengren said yesterday in a speech in Mashantucket, Connecticut. “The current level of accommodation from monetary and fiscal policy is appropriate.”

At their last meeting, some officials on the Fed’s Open Market Committee said they had a “fairly high threshold for making changes” to the Fed’s $600 billion round of purchases, according to minutes of the gathering.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week during a panel discussion that “we see the economy strengthening,” adding that “you’re not going to reduce unemployment at the pace that we’d like it to.”

Scaling Back

Lacker told reporters after his speech that “it’s not inconceivable to me that we would find growth coming in strong enough in the next couple of months to warrant scaling back on the program.”

Inflation will probably rise to between 1.5 percent and 2 percent this year, Lacker said. Fed presidents rotate voting on monetary policy with Lacker voting next year.

“The downward trend in inflation during the recession had many commentators warning of the possibility of outright deflation,” he said. “At this point, I think the risk of deflation is negligible.”

Still, “the lesson of the ‘70s at this time in the business cycle is we need to be careful,” Lacker said to reporters. “For the next couple of years we need to be really careful about the potential for inflation to accelerate if we’re not vigilant enough about reacting.”

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Electric cars move closer to your garage

AOL Autos) -- At the 2009 Detroit Auto Show, Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota and MINI showed the world what electric vehicles of the future will look like. And the future of driving looks fun.

Those in the know realize that sometime in the future, the vast majority of light cars and trucks in the US will feature electric final drive systems.

The motors used in these systems will be powered by batteries, fuel cells, on-board generators, and perhaps even the sun ... but this open issue doesn't change the inevitably of this reality.

Given our current economic times, reality demands practical, tangible, and achievable ideas of what electric vehicles (or "EVs" for short) might actually look like. This is it...

Chrysler

Three of the four electric vehicles Chrysler showed in Detroit, Michigan, were shown at other events and even to Washington bureaucrats. Each of these vehicles is a running prototype, not some pie-in-the-sky-we'll-never-build that idea.

ENVI is the special group of engineers at Chrysler that develops the company's EVs. To date, the ENVI group has developed four electrically powered models, each quite different from the other: a Dodge Circuit EV sports car (rear-wheel drive), a Chrysler Town & Country minivan (front-wheel-drive), a Jeep Wrangler Unlimited (all-wheel-drive), and now a Jeep Patriot (front-wheel-drive).

Chrysler promises to offer at least one of these models in 2010, and three more by 2013. AOL Autos: Dodge Circuit EV photos

Chrysler approaches electric vehicles with simple plug-and-play engineering. Every one of their vehicles uses similar electric drive motors (only varying in power output), advanced lithium-ion batteries, and a power management controller. Each plugs in to 110- or 220-volt household outlets for recharging.

The Chrysler and both Jeeps use an on-board range-extending battery charger (a generator). This generator automatically turns on after the vehicle's initial batter charge has been spent (usually within a range of 40 miles), supplying extra voltage that give these three vehicles an estimated range of approximately 400 miles. The generator is powered by a small gasoline-powered engine that runs with exceptional efficiency.

This technology is similar in concept to what General Motors has shown in their Chevrolet Volt, a vehicle that should be ready for production in 2010. AOL Autos: Cadillac Converj photos

The Dodge Circuit carries a larger battery pack and no generator, so its range on the charge it carries is approximately 150-200 miles. Its large battery pack combined with compact dimensions and the exceptional torque provided by its electric motor blast the car from zero-to-sixty mph in around four seconds ... exceptionally fast for any sports car regardless of engine type.

Mercedes-Benz

Mercedes-Benz used the 2009 Detroit Auto Show to showcase their Concept BlueZERO vehicles. The Mercedes approach was to develop one efficient body style, and then equip it with three different electric drive packages. AOL Autos: Mercedes Stirling Moss photos

Much of the hardware for the all-electric front-wheel-drive propulsion units is built into what Mercedes calls "sandwich-floor" architecture that the company uses on several production cars. The design helps keep heavy components mounted low on the chassis for better handling, enhanced safety, and maximized interior room.

All three Concept BlueZERO vehicles include electric drive and batteries. The E-Cell uses a large battery pack that is said to deliver a range of 120 miles. The F-Cell utilizes a smaller battery pack, but supplements the vehicle's range with a hydrogen fuel cell. The fuel cell produces electricity to recharge the battery pack that extends cruising range to 240 miles.

The E-Cell Plus, with a range of approximately 360 miles, is the distance champion. The key is the on-board generator powered by tiny 1-liter turbo-charged three-cylinder gasoline engine. The engine and generator are located in the rear of the BlueZERO.

For the record, when you see photos of these cars together, the E-Cell is lime green, the F-Cell is mint green, and the E-Cell Plus is orange.

Toyota

Adding to its line of popular hybrid vehicles in the U.S., Toyota just confirmed plans to add as many as 10 new gas/electric hybrid vehicles in the next few years.

On their way toward that goal, Toyota showed their all-new, third-generation Prius plus the new Lexus HS250H. AOL Autos: 2010 Toyota Prius photos

Important to this story, Toyota also committed to selling a battery powered electric car in 2012 for the U.S. market.

Toyota debuted what their all-electric vehicle might be at the 2009 Detroit Auto Show, and it's an urban commuter called the FT-EV. The little four-seater is based on Toyota's popular iQ, a car that's already a hit in Japan. The good news is that the iQ is a real car, so the FT-EV will not be a glorified golf cart or a neighborhood vehicle with severely limited capabilities. The claimed range for the FT-EV is 50 miles.

As we went to press, details were still sketchy about the FT-EV's running gear. As Toyota releases more details, we'll bring them to you.

Mini

While standard MINI models like the Cooper are comparatively easy on gas compared to larger cars, under the ownership of parent company BMW, MINI is testing the limits of how green a MINI can be. AOL Autos: 2010 BMW Z4 photos

Perhaps following the performance of the stunt cars used in The Italian Job (2003), BMW decided to investigate a battery-powered MINI. They introduced the MINI E coupe last November at the Los Angeles Auto Show and the car was on display again in Detroit.

The "charged" MINI E can run up to 150 miles on a full battery pack. Charging is accomplished through standard 110- or 220-volt outlets. The electrified MINI weighs 600 pounds more than a standard MINI Cooper and because of the bulk of the required battery pack, the interior seats only two. Performance from the 204-horsepower motor equals the gas-powered MINI, with a 0-60 mph run in 8.5 seconds.

BMW will produce only 500 MINI Es for the United States (if it were easy to make electric MINIs, they'd make more). The limited-production run will be split between New York and L.A. on one-year closed-end leases. After the leases expire, BMW will ship the MINIs back to Germany for evaluation. This scenario mimics what General Motors did with their EV1 electric vehicle about a decade ago.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/01/16/aa.electric.cars.debut/index

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